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the one bad data point thing from stats

Stats lecture yesterday, not about mental health at all, just regression methods, but the professor put up a messy scatterplot and said something like: one point off the line doesn’t change the trend, you only worry when the whole slope moves. Wrote that down fast because I’d been doing the thing where one bad night erases two good weeks in my head.

Monday I was up past 1am finishing a response paper, maybe 4 hours of sleep, and all day Tuesday I kept waiting to feel like I’d undone something. Checked my sleep log instead of assuming the worst, out of the last 14 nights 11 were before midnight. One late night is a point off the line, not a new slope.

Same thing with the garden. Missed watering 2 days this week because of a closing shift and a study group that ran long, and the tomatoes looked a little sad about it but they’re fine today. Not every missed day means the habit’s gone.

Writing it here so next time one bad night tries to convince me the whole thing slipped back…

Comment 1

  • OceanBreeze10.19 23:31

    i did this after a bad night too, checked my log and only 1 of 9 nights was late

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